CO129-502-8 China- general situation 27-4-1927 - 15-9-1927 — Page 104

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(3) "Assuming a state of war, a blockade of

South China would, in the first instance, seriously embarras the Nationalist Govern- ment, but would not in itself cause a cessation of hostilities since in course of time internal trade would find its way through the country, and foreign trade is not essential. The stoppage of sea- borne supplies of munitions might, however, have a serious effect on the Cantonese, the extent of which depends largely on

(1) The stocks now in possession of the

Southern Armies.

(ii) The output of the arsenals at Canton

and Hanyang; and

(iii) The amount of arms traffic which might

take place through French Indo-China and possibly North China."

A

(4) "4 blockade of South China might unite the North and South against the British".

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